Wachstumsmarkt China - Erfolgs-modell im Umbau

China im Umbau

Chinas Einfluss auf die globale Wirtschaft wächst weiter. Chinesische Investoren auf der Suche nach Akquisitionschancen im Ausland, ein umfassender Ausbau der Handelswege von und nach China sowie massive Investitionen in 'Green Energy' – Themen und Schwerpunkte verschieben sich. Fakt ist aber: China bleibt einer der dynamischsten Märkte der Welt.
Die chinesische Währung Renminbi (RMB) spielt dabei eine beachtliche Rolle. Ihr zunehmender Einsatz im globalen Handel bietet Geschäftspartnern in Deutschland Möglichkeiten für wachsende Geschäfte in Asien.
Gut, wenn Unternehmen dabei von einem Finanzpartner begleitet werden, der in beiden Welten tief verwurzelt ist. Profitieren Sie von der Präsenz sowie vom Know-how der HSBC-Gruppe.

Driving financial reform

by Gordon French, Head of Global Banking and Markets, Asia-Pacific, HSBC

Raising the vast amount of capital needed to meet Asia’s infrastructure needs will also inject fresh momentum into the region’s capital markets.

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China's "Belt and Road" infrastructure initiative is an essential part of the country's domestic economic rebalancing and of its outbound ambitions. The initiative entails investing billions of dollars into infrastructure such as railways, highways and ports that link mainland China and the dozens of countries to its west and south. The goal is to encourage more cross-border trade while creating opportunities for Chinese companies.

Raising the vast amount of capital needed to meet Asia's infrastructure needs will also inject fresh momentum into the region's capital markets. Investment in "Belt and Road" projects could total RMB1.5 trillion in the coming years. Part of this will come via a USD40 billion Silk Road Fund, and the newly launched USD100 billion Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.

Yet this is only a small part of the trillions that will need to flow into transport and urban infrastructure over the coming decades as developing nations aim to raise productivity and deal with rising urbanisation. In China alone, more than 200 million people are expected to leave rural communities for the city in the next 15 years.

Reforms in mainland China have expanded the options available to foreign and domestic investors and bond issuers in recent years. The "Belt and Road" initiative will trigger more issuance and investment. It could also galvanise China's financial reforms, and encourage policymakers to further open the country's capital market to global participants.

This is good news. A more liquid and diverse bond market will help improve the allocation of capital and reduce the Chinese economy's heavy reliance on bank lending. Local-currency markets in many of Asia's smaller countries could also increase in depth and range. "Belt and Road" investments will help to attract investor attention globally, and expand corporate access to long-term capital around the region.

This convergence of supply and demand could help transform Asian financing markets in the coming years. It has the potential to expand the role of bond markets in recycling Asian savings into long-term investment in infrastructure for growth – especially if policymakers manage to bring about more cohesion in areas such as taxation, foreign exchange regulation and credit ratings. The initiative will also help boost the internationalisation of the Chinese currency as more transactions are settled in renminbi.

The "Belt and Road" initiative will help make it easier for trucks, ships and trains to transport goods around large parts of the globe. But it could well have another valuable impact in oiling the wheels of finance. 25 February 2016


The "Belt and Road" initiative will make it easier to transport goods

Infographic: China facing out

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China's shift to digital

by Helen Wong, Chief Executive, Greater China, HSBC

Chinese consumers have adopted the digital world with lightning speed.

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Online shopping is transforming the face of China's economy and putting pricing power in the hands of its 1.37 billion consumers. China has promoted greater use of the internet to spearhead economic reform and foster the development of a consumption-led economy.

For decades, mainland China's expansion was powered by low-value-added manufacturing – cheap toys, shoes and textiles "Made in China" and exported to the rest of the world. The focus now is increasingly on making the country's economy more productive, innovative and market-oriented.

Chinese consumers have adopted the digital world with lightning speed. Just a decade ago, there were fewer than 100 million internet users in mainland China, about 7 per cent of the population. Now, nearly 50 per cent of the nation is online, with some 667 million internet users as of June 2015. The country is the world's largest e-commerce market: online retail sales in mainland China totalled RMB3.87 trillion (USD589.61 billion) in 2015, up 33.3 per cent from a year earlier, according to official data.

This eager embrace of the internet has injected transparency and competition into the mainland Chinese economy, ensuring that quality, price, efficiency and service are rewarded more than ever before. But the real impact will come if these market forces take root across all parts of the economy – in particular, the country's large state-owned sector.

Mainland China's approximately 150,000 state-owned enterprises employ more than 30 million people and contribute nearly a third of China's GDP. Their actions have a big impact on the speed and direction of China's economic rebalancing. Not all state-owned enterprises have been quick to harness the internet. However, those that do can reap substantial benefits. Chinese authorities have seen the successes in the private sector and are now encouraging change in the state-owned sector, too.

In March 2015, Premier Li Keqiang announced the "Internet-Plus" initiative. This aims to encourage China's manufacturers to deploy mobile internet, cloud computing, Big Data analysis and other tools. It promotes the development of internet banking, mass entrepreneurship and innovation. It also aims to support higher-tech approaches in agriculture, energy, finance, public services, logistics, e-commerce, traffic, biology and artificial intelligence. China spent RMB430 billion in 2015 to improve the country's internet system. A further RMB700 billion of public funds will be spent in 2016 and 2017.

These policies could help provide momentum for China in the years ahead. They will create new markets for innovative products and services. And they will generate jobs for workers with digital and high-tech skills. In the long term, China's digital economy will help its international ambitions.

The heavy capital investment and labour force expansion that fuelled China's rise over the past three decades cannot be sustained indefinitely. The country's embrace of the internet can ultimately support China's goal of creating a more sustainable digital economy. China's policy makers, and the country's online shoppers, are helping to bring that change about.

A version of this article first appeared in The South China Morning Post on 14 March 2016.


More than 650 million Chinese people now use the internet

China embraces green bonds

by Wai-Shin Chan, Climate Change Strategist, HSBC

We expect more green-bond policy and issuance in 2016 because the environment remains high on Beijing’s political agenda.

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Some USD45.7 billion of green bonds – instruments financing environmentally friendly projects – were issued globally in 2015. But a mere USD3.2 billion was from Asia. Now, however, the People’s Bank of China has released a set of green-bond guidelines that should allow these bonds to help achieve the environmental and climate targets in China’s new 13th Five-Year Plan.

The central bank’s guidelines are similar to the voluntary international Green Bond Principles, but they come with a catalogue of possible green projects. Although the guidelines lack clear definitions, they require financial institutions issuing green bonds to satisfy basic conditions such as having good corporate governance, being profitable and committing no major illegal acts over the previous three years.

These conditions already apply to issues of ordinary bonds, but a green-bond prospectus must also indicate the categories of green projects available, the selection criteria, the decision-making procedures, and the environmental benefits – requirements similar to the Green Bond Principles. A stipulation that green-bond proceeds are ring-fenced for the duration of the project should further reassure investors.

Importantly, overseas financial institutions can now issue green bonds in China. We expect this to begin with multilaterals, including the Asian Development Bank or the International Finance Corporation, followed by foreign banks with Chinese licences. Several have already issued green bonds elsewhere and can bring their experience to China.

Standards that address uniform environmental benefit – such as CO2 emissions saved per USD1,000 of bond issued – are probably still years away. China should gradually develop its own standards but more capacity-building is required first.

To develop its desired green financial system, China needs:

• More domestic issuance, possibly from policy banks such as the Agricultural Bank of China, with local governments funding local environmental projects

• More championing of green bonds – from domestic investors such as the National Social Security Fund; state funds; institutional investors like pension funds; and foreign investors keen to participate in China's growing environmental economy

• More independent assessors or second-party assurance of green bonds, perhaps from universities or quasi-government institutions

• More accurate and comprehensive data gathering, because quantifying the environmental benefits requires accurate data

We expect more green-bond policy and issuance in 2016 because the environment remains high on Beijing’s political agenda. And with China holding the G20 presidency, there should be more green financing initiatives this year.

Environmental themes should also permeate many other areas of China’s Five-Year Plan. Urbanisation and the upgrade of industrial structure are both mentioned in the green-project catalogue.

Financial liberalisation will also be a key theme of the Plan and this includes green financing such as exploring new investment and funding mechanisms for low-carbon development as well as improving green-credit procedures. Green financing also demonstrates that capital is being employed to clean up China’s air, water and soil – something increasingly being demanded domestically.


Green bonds will help China to meet its latest environmental targets

Infographic: Green China

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This research was first published on 13 January 2016. Disclaimer

Analyst certification

The following analyst(s), economist(s), and/or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and/or any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Wai-shin Chan

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Distribution of fundamental credit and covered bond opinions

As of 12 January 2016, the distribution of all credit opinions published is as follows:

___All Covered Companies___
Companies where HSBC has provided Investment Banking in the
past 12 months
Count Percentage Count Percentage
Overweight 68 24 16 24
Neutral 165 58 55 33
Underweight 51 18 14 27

Source: HSBC

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Ihr Zugang zum globalen Netzwerk

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